We’ve all experienced moments in the aftermath of a decision or event where we wonder if we are on the right path. This can often lead to feelings of regret, self-doubt and frustration.
Consider the example of taking an unconventional career path—perhaps you’ve launched your own startup or decided to pursue a career in the arts. After encountering a few bumps in the road, you’re suddenly surrounded by a chorus of voices saying, “You should have taken that stable job,” or “I told you this was a risky path.” You may even find yourself second guessing if your decision was the right one.
Such opinions and thoughts are actually based on “hindsight bias”—a psychological tendency where we believe, after an event has occurred, that we would have predicted or known the outcome. In an attempt to explain the situation we find ourselves in, we essentially “rewrite” the story of how we got there, choosing to focus on certain factors that seem to support the outcome, while ignoring others that don’t.
This bias is notorious for making us feel as though we are inept at making important decisions, but this isn’t necessarily the case. Here are two ways to be more self-assured in your decision-making abilities and less swayed by hindsight bias.
1. Be Balanced In Gathering The Data You Need To Make A Decision
We tend to think of the mind as rational when it comes to processing information, but a 2018 study published in PNAS found that this is far from the truth. In fact, the study suggests that emotions have an important place in how we process information, presumably to reduce the paralytic effects of information overload on our ability to make decisions.
This finding has important implications. While gathering information is a crucial part of the decision-making process, it’s equally important to strike a balance between facts and emotion. Spending too much time gathering pure data can lead to analysis paralysis, where decision-making becomes overwhelming due to the abundance of information. Or it can point to a “safe” decision that doesn’t bring any joy to you. On the other hand, not gathering enough information can result in emotional decisions that aren’t grounded in reality.
One way to achieve this balance is to talk to experts during the information-gathering process so that you receive diverse perspectives and expert insights that can guide your decision-making process. Experts, with their wealth of knowledge and experience, can provide nuanced understanding and foresight that might not be apparent from raw information.
They can help you identify potential pitfalls, understand the implications of different choices and make sense of complex information. However, it’s important to remember that experts are also human and subject to their own biases. So, their opinions should be considered as part of the larger pool of information and not be the sole basis of your decision.
2. Develop A Growth Mindset In The Face Of Unfavorable Outcomes
Let’s revisit the example of taking the unconventional career path. When you encounter challenges or setbacks along this path, it’s important to view these obstacles not as failures, but as launchpads for learning and growth.
For instance, if your startup faces financial difficulties or your art doesn’t get the recognition you hoped for, it’s easy to see these as signs that you made the wrong decision. However, with a growth mindset, you are able to reframe these challenges as valuable feedback. This can guide your future actions and help you improve.
A 2019 study published in Nature found that when students undergo an intervention designed to develop a growth mindset rather than resign to the “fate” of their abilities, a significant number are able to improve their grades. This goes to show how important belief is when it comes to following through.
Trusting that you made the best decision with the information you had access to is a great precursor to strengthening your growth mindset. Treat the new “feedback” as a stepping stone in making better choices about where to go from here.
Wallowing in regret or the “knew-it-all-along” phenomenon will prevent you from committing fully to a path, which is a surefire way to scare yourself into inaction.
As much as we’d like to believe that perfect decisions exist, life has a way of throwing curveballs our way. How we respond to these curveballs makes all the difference. By developing a confidence in our ability to make decisions we can live with, we are more likely to fuel a growth mindset that can protect us from the negative effects of hindsight bias.
If you’d like to learn more about your decision-making style, take this test: Intuitive Decision Style Scale
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