The prospect that US residents may soon be able to invest in bitcoin through their brokerage, as if it were a regular stock, has prompted a fresh round of hype in crypto circles—and a surge in crypto prices.
Several investment firms, including heavy-hitters like BlackRock and Fidelity, are queuing up to launch a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. These funds would track the price of bitcoin, making them the closest thing to investing in the crypto token directly without dealing with a crypto exchange or storing crypto manually, a process fraught with risk.
After a bruising 18 months in which crypto prices buckled, high-profile businesses collapsed, and two crypto figureheads were convicted of crimes in the US, the crypto industry is supposed to be cleaning up its act. That the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be entertaining a spot bitcoin ETF after years of resistance is seen by some as a signal that crypto is moving beyond its free-wheeling years.
The arrival of such a fund in the US—by far the world’s largest ETF market—“is a significant milestone,” says Samson Mow, a prominent bitcoin evangelist and CEO of bitcoin-centric technology firm JAN3, as it will allow investors to hold bitcoin through a conventional financial product for the first time.
While there is broad consensus around the likelihood of an ETF approval among analysts, the idea that it would be symbolic of the industry’s coming of age is contradicted by the frenzy of speculation around what will happen to the price of bitcoin.
On X, crypto influencers with hundreds of thousands of followers are predicting an ETF will send the price of bitcoin soaring, in posts peppered with the rocket ship emoji. The arrival of a spot bitcoin ETF, claims Mow, will unlock a wave of pent-up demand and lead a “torrent of capital” to “pour into bitcoin.” Institutions and other investors that either cannot or choose not to invest in unregulated financial products will seize the opportunity to invest, he says, driving the price far beyond its previous heights.
An ETF might point to a growing acceptance of bitcoin among legacy financial institutions, but the implications for the price of bitcoin are being both mis- and overstated, ETF analysts warn, and the boosterism on display shows that little about crypto has changed.
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