Pre-orders for the iPhone 15 series are well underway before the phone’s release instore on Friday, September 22. Here’s a full countdown to everything that happens between now and then, so you don’t miss a thing. Now, reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has weighed in on what’s happened so far and what it means for iPhone customers.
Pre-orders began last Friday—although there was a clever way to jump to the head of the line—and seem to be going strong. According to Ming-Chi Kuo from TFI Securities in a new Medium post, demand for certain models is strong. Specifically, for the iPhone 15 Pro Max, it’s “robust, as previously expected, outpacing last year’s iPhone 14 Pro Max.” That’s why delivery dates for some versions have already slipped into November. But it’s not just down to stronger demand, it seems. Kuo says, “Wait times for the iPhone 15 Pro Max are significantly longer than for other models, but this is more than just due to high demand. Current iPhone 15 Pro Max shipments are lower due to a later mass production schedule, and its current production challenges are more pronounced than other models.”
There are other details. Kuo says, “Demand for the two standard iPhone 15 models is roughly on par with last year.”
And one big surprise, for me at least: “Demand for the iPhone 15 Pro is weaker than last year, with one possible reason being a shift of more premium users to the iPhone 15 Pro Max this year.” Kuo’s logic makes perfect sense but there’s still some surprise here. In the U.K. for instance, the 15 Pro is priced at $1,237 (£999), which is $123 (£100) less than the iPhone 14 Pro—this is one of the most under-reported stories of the new iPhone.
Kuo underplays the issue of the Chinese government banning the iPhone. Kuo says, “I wouldn’t say the media reports about the Chinese government banning the iPhone are wrong, but such news can easily mislead readers. Currently, members of the Chinese Communist Party, government employees, and employees of state-owned enterprises aren’t the iPhone’s primary target customers. Moreover, the iPhone ban is an isolated decision by specific government organizations or state-owned enterprises, so the impact of banning iPhones from these reports on iPhone sales in China is not significant.”
The report also says that while the comeback of Huawei in China will have an impact on the iPhone, pre-orders don’t reflect this as “Those who pre-order iPhones are core users or Apple fans, not the target customers for the current Huawei phones.”
Finally Kuo stands by the previous estimate that “approximately 80 million units of the iPhone 15 will ship this year.”
If there’s a lesson to learn from all this, it’s that the Pro Max demand will probably get greater before it eases, so ordering sooner, or trusting a carrier to have stock from Friday, may be your best idea.
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